Oregon - Page 5

Travel Bliss: The Oregon Garden Resort (Silverton, Oregon)

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The Oregon Garden Resort travel on UrbanBlissLife.comLooking for a relaxing getaway in a gorgeous Pacific Northwest setting? Check out the Oregon Garden Resort in Silverton, Oregon.  Nestled in the quiet town of Silverton, Oregon, just a few miles south of the state capital of Salem and approximately one hour south of Portland, is The Oregon Garden Resort and the beautiful Oregon Garden….

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Travel Bliss: Salishan Spa & Golf Resort on the Oregon Coast

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Salishan Spa and Golf Resort hotel review family travel on UrbanBlissLife.comTraveling to the Oregon Coast? Consider a stay at Salishan Spa and Golf Resort, a beach resort offering laidback luxury, great for couples travel, family travel, and group travel!  No matter how much tourism to Oregon state grows, the Oregon Coast seems to retain its small town coastal vibe. Growing up in Oregon, Salishan Spa…

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Food Bliss: Buckman Public House (Portland, Oregon)

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Buckman Public House restaurant in Portland, Oregon, on UrbanBlissLife.comBuckman Public House in Portland, Oregon has a vibrant cocktail program, and serves artfully presented, creative lunch and dinner dishes in a former high school building. Portland, Oregon may be a young city but there are still so many untold stories and history within the walls of old structures in the midst of the city’s…

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Travel Bliss: 5 Tips for Choosing a Family Vacation Rental Home

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5 Tips for Choosing a Vacation Rental Home - Cascara Vacation Rentals in Sunriver, Oregon on UrbanBlissLife.comIf you’re planning family travel, it can be challenging to sift through the thousands of options for a family vacation rental home. These five basic tips will help you get started on the right track to choosing the one that will suit your family! Travel plans in the works? With so many options out there,…

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Wine Bliss: Rain Dance Vineyards in Newberg, Oregon

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Rain Dance Vineyards wine review on UrbanBlissLife.comLlamas, an artisan shop, and wonderful wines… if you’re visiting the Willamette Valley in Oregon, be sure to stop by Rain Dance Vineyards for a truly unique wine tasting experience! When headed out toward the heart of Oregon Wine Country along my favorite main back road, Bell Road, you can’t miss the big red barn…

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WINE BLISS: Woven Wineworks Pop-Up Series & Events

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Woven Wineworks Pop-Up Series on UrbanBlissLife.comFamily-owned and operated Woven Wineworks offers delightful Oregon wines at several pop-up series events and tastings throughout the summer.  Summer in Portland, Oregon is magical. Every week and weekend is filled with food and beverage festivals, pop-up series events, cellar series events, concerts in the vineyards, movies in the vineyards… Oregon wine country blooms with…

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Travel Bliss: What to Do in Hood River, Oregon: Visit Kiyokawa Family Orchards

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Kiyokawa Orchards in Hood River, Oregon. UrbanBlissLife.comAdventure to the scenic Columbia River Gorge and stop by the Kiyokawa Family Orchards in Hood River, Oregon for a day of farm fresh fun! The day that we visited Kiyokawa Family Orchards was an idyllic, picnic-perfect, Pacific Northwest kind of day. The skies were a magnificent clear blue, with not a cloud to be found….

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Oregon Recreational Marijuana Forecast

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SB 845, among other things, would give our office the recreational marijuana forecast responsibility. While not current law yet, we went ahead and produced such a forecast for the first time in our most recent quarterly forecast. What follows below the fold is an extended summary of our forecast work, including lots of pictures, I mean charts, for those interested.

Currently the outlook for recreational marijuana sales and tax collections remains highly uncertain. While Oregon has now collected just over a year’s worth of taxes, there have been substantial changes during this time that complicate any analysis. Early start sales through medical dispensaries were taxed at a 25 percent of rate, while sales at OLCC licensed retailers are now taxed at a 17 percent rate, with the local option of adding up to 3 additional percent. Furthermore, regulatory changes, more stringent product testing requirements, and Mother Nature all impacted and reduced available supply on the market during this time.

The first chart shows monthly tax collections as reported by the Department of Revenue, with the colors representing the different state tax rates. During the transition period there were recreational sales at both medical dispensaries (taxed at 25%) and at OLCC retailers (taxed at 17%).  The percentages listed are the effective tax rates after blending together sales under both regimes. These figures do not include any of the local option taxes, just the state portion.

As such, it is challenging to get a handle on the underlying trends in this newly legalized world. Thankfully, Oregon is not alone. Both Colorado and Washington are two years ahead of us. Both states have seen tremendous growth in sales and tax collections, which serves as a guide for where Oregon is likely headed in the near-term. Over time, as the market matures, future growth will follow trends in the economy and consumer spending. However the coming few years will see strong growth as the product becomes more widely available, more socially acceptable, and more black and gray market sales are realized in the legal market.

Certainly, one year’s worth of tax collections, and one set of quarterly tax returns filed by dispensaries is more valuable than no data. Our office’s forecasting responsibilities are made considerably easier than what faced those estimating the potential impact of Measure 91 (2014) which legalized recreational sales. That said, one year’s worth of data is not enough to build a full-fledged forecasting model, particularly when it is a brand new legal market. Over time, as we accumulate more data, a longer history of sales, and detailed breakdowns of consumer purchases and demographics, our office will build an econometric model. Until then, in consultation with our advisory group, and using Colorado and Washington as a guide, our office is relying on trends for the short-term outlook.

In terms of sales, Oregon’s first year closely tracks Colorado’s first year and outpaces Washington’s. The numbers in the graph below are estimated sales figures based on actual tax collections. Both Colorado and Washington are larger states than Oregon, so we adjust their figures based on the relative size of the adult population.

There are at least four main reasons for this pattern:

First, marijuana usage rates from surveys indicate a larger share of Oregonians have used marijuana in the past month than what is reported in Washington. As such, Oregon is more likely to see larger sales than Washington, after adjusting for population size. However, usage is not the only measure that matters, as Colorado’s usage rates are even higher than Oregon’s. Note that these national health surveys are based on responses prior to recreational legalization.

Second, prices and taxes matter. Oregon has a significantly lower tax rate than does Washington, which helps keep final consumer prices lower. Furthermore, the first set of quarterly tax returns, a very limited data set, indicates that Oregon prices were very competitive with Washington prices, even though Washington had two additional years to get accustomed to the newly legal market, license growers, processors and the like. A lower retail price, everything else equal, should bring more consumers and more black market conversions.

Third, the cross-border effect with legal sales beginning earlier in Washington likely had an impact on Oregon’s first year of sales. Counties in southwest Washington saw sales fall by nearly 40 percent once Oregon’s early sales began. Clearly there was plenty of cross-border activity. Effectively this meant Oregon had somewhat of a built-in customer base who were used to purchasing in the legal market. Thus Oregon’s initial sales were larger than in Washington, but this may have some to do with social acceptance and being used to the new system rather than fundamentally stronger sales.

Fourth, both Colorado and Washington initially had relatively few retail outlets in major population centers. In Colorado, Denver had retailers but Boulder did not initially. In Washington, Seattle had only a few retailers at first, but have added quite a few in recent years. As such, some of each state’s strong growth in the first two years was simply due to market access and product availability, particularly in places where lots of people live. It is unlikely this is a similar issue in Oregon, with our major population centers having dispensaries at first, and retailers now. Not that Oregon is overstored, or that there cannot be more room for growth – Colorado, for example, has considerably more retailers even after adjusting for their larger population – however lack of consumer access does not appear to be a major issue in Oregon today for much of the population.

In terms of the outlook, Oregon is poised for strong growth in the coming years. However, given the above and the advice from our advisory group, our office is not forecasting revenues to be quite as strong as those seen in Colorado over their second and third years.

This outlook remains highly uncertain with substantial upside and downside risks.

On the downside, supply constraints that keep products and inventory low will result in fewer sales, and tax collections. Such constraints could be regulatory changes that impact grower, processors or retailers, or regulatory bottlenecks where companies in the industry are unable to get their licenses, renewals or tests completed or approved in a timely manner. Another downside risk for tax collections are prices, given Oregon levies the tax based on the sales price. To date in Colorado and Washington, prices have fallen around 20 percent per year. Marijuana is a commodity and eventually will be commoditized. How far and how quickly prices decline is a considerable risk to the outlook for tax collections. Offsetting this risk somewhat is the fact that lower prices should result in larger sales, helping to buoy tax collections overall, which is what has happened in both Colorado and Washington so far. Finally, the one risk that looms large over the entire forecast is the federal government. While there has been no clear warning or action taken, there is a non-zero chance the federal government could step in and eliminate, or severely restrict recreational marijuana sales. In this event, taxes collected would be considerably less than forecasted.

On the upside, consumers overall could get more comfortable with legalized recreational marijuana sales, and the industry gains broader social acceptance, resulting in larger sales. Furthermore, a faster rate of black market conversion would also result in more legal sales. Similarly, conversions from the medical marijuana market to the recreational market would result in more sales and taxes collections. The impact of the seed-to-sale tracking system may also increase activity within the legal market and restrict the flow of product into the black market.

While the sales and tax collection outlook is uncertain, it is also fairly straightforward. The same cannot be said for distributing the taxes, or at least not yet. Currently there have been no distributions from the collected recreational marijuana taxes and there are likely to be none in the current biennium. Start-up costs to OLCC and other state programs need to be repaid first, with only the net revenues after accounting for these costs available for transfer to recipient programs like schools, state police, city and county law enforcement and the like. The exact reimbursement figures will be finalized in the coming months, with the first tax distributions made early in the 2017-19 biennium.

The process and timing for future tax distributions is as follows. First, retailers pay taxes on a monthly basis. These are the figures reported periodically in the media and other outlets. However these taxes are not immediately available for distribution. They only become available for recipient programs once the Department of Revenue has received and processed a retailer’s quarterly tax return. This ensures transfers are made based on the correct, not estimated, taxes paid by retailers. As such there is a time lag of between one and two quarters from when taxes are initially paid to the Department of Revenue and when they are available to transfer to programs. This discrepancy is likely to shorten some in the future as retailers file their taxes in a timelier manner, however the time lag will not be eliminated entirely. The chart below tries to show the lag between the tax collections paid on a monthly basis and when they become available for distribution.

Given no distributions will be made in the current 2015-17 biennium, the accumulated revenues are carried forward into 2017-19 and will be distributed then. Again, note that the Tax Revenues reported in our office’s forecast tables represent the amount available for distribution. Currently there is approximately $78 million in tax collections at the Department of Revenue, with the total 2015-17 figured forecasted to be nearly $90 million. However, as our table shows, under normal circumstances where we do not have to worry about start-up costs being repaid first, only about $67 million of the $90 million would be available for distribution in the 2015-17 biennium. This time lag between monthly collections and quarterly tax returns is a big deal in the budget world and can be a bit confusing. At least for me it was at first when trying to wrap my head around when monies will be distributed.

The above is what our office worked on and published in our latest quarterly forecast. However, some of the costs and revenue distributions will change (or have already changed) based on legislation. For example, the same SB 845 that gives our office the forecasting responsibilities also changes to the revenue distributions. Also, SB 1057 impacts the administrative cost estimates. Additional bills remain alive in the legislative process. Our office, with the help of other agencies and legislative staff, will update the forecast as bills become law. Check back in August when we release our next forecast for all the details.

For more click to continue on to https://oregoneconomicanalysis.com

March Madness: Welcome Oregon women’s basketball to the Big Dance

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March Madness
March Madness

SEATTLE – Any doubts about Oregon women’s basketball’s inclusion to the NCAA Tournament were thoroughly snuffed out Friday in Key Arena.

Sophomore guard Maite Cazorla and freshman Ruthy Hebard contested Kelsey Plum’s shot at the buzzer, hanging on for a 70-69 victory over rival Washington in the Pac-12 Tournament quarterfinals.

Plum, the NCAA’s all-time leading scorer, played all 40 minutes and scored a game-high 34 points. But it wasn’t enough as the No. 3 seed Huskies (27-5, 15-3 conference) fell in front a largely friendly crowd of nearly 10,000.

The Ducks, which moved to 20-13, 8-10, on the season Saturday with a loss to perennial power Stanford in the semifinals, did enough to punch their proverbial tickets by up ending border rival Washington.

In their previous meeting of the season, a 99-77 shellacking at Matt Knight Arena on Dec. 30, gave little hope of an Oregon bounce back.

But bounce it did, right out of the bubble and into solid tournament placement.

The Ducks résumé is finito. Written, spell checked – signed, sealed and delivered. Now the waiting begins.

While the Oregon men’s basketball team carries its No. 1 seed into the Pac-12 Tournament in Las Vegas, the women have a week off to wait for Selection Sunday.

There’s no doubt both Ducks teams will be dancing. The only question is will there be any ill will with seeding for the Big Dance.

It’s safe to assume the women, which haven’t made the NCAA Tournament since 2005, will wind up somewhere in the 6-8 range.

But hey, with a friendly committee it wouldn’t be outlandish to see the Ducks as high as a five. And an unfavorable one could drop them as low as a nine or even a double digit.

Their RPI is No. 34, which doesn’t do their body of work justice. But really, when does a computer ranking?

That’s the fun of March Madness, right?

As for the men, their fate is a little more certain.

Oregon men's basketball
Oregon men’s basketball

Their No. 5 ranking would lead to believe they’re sitting on the cusp of back to back No. 1 seeds for the NCAA Tournament – Oregon reached the elite eight last year as the West’s top seed.

Should it win out, a one would almost be certain. That is unless the selection committee buys into the all powerful, benevolent RPI.

Yes, according to ESPN, Oregon is only No. 14 in the latest RPI rankings. That’s one spot behind UCLA, the highest ranked team, which just so happens to be ranked No. 4 in the AP Poll.

Even more surprisingly, Arizona, who seems to be in the top 10 in every human poll/power ranking, is only No. 23 in the RPI.

Riddle me that, please…

Joe Lunardi of ESPN has the Ducks as the No. 2 seed from the west. A trip to Sacramento wouldn’t be the worst thing for a Pacific Northwest squad.

And, in my very humble opinion, Gonzaga is the weakest of those No. 1 seeds.

NCAA Tournament
NCAA Tournament

I’ll take it. Oh yeah, I’ll take an underdog role.

How weird is that, really, that a No. 2 seed is considered a slight to Oregon basketball.

Just five years ago, as an up and coming Dana Altman prepared to take over a mediocre Ducks program, the idea of back to back tournament appearances would have been enough for Phil Knight to donate another *insert ridiculous amount of money* check to the program.

Now, and maybe it’s just how bad Oregon football has been the past two years, but fans are already spoiled, entitled hoops fans.

This column certainly rambled and got away from my original message of “wow – just check out what these Lady Ducks are doing.”

Both Oregon teams haven’t gone dancing the same March in 17 years. Both teams are having unprecedented years for different reasons.

Make no mistake, this could end up being the best March Madness in Oregon history. So let’s make sure we appreciate it for what it really is.

The move to, dare I say, becoming a basketball school?

Oregon softball is undefeated and a national title darkhorse

Oregon softball
Oregon softball
Credit: GoDucks.com

Head coach Mike White has had no shortage of talented Oregon softball teams in his eight seasons in Eugene.

 

This year’s team might rival his very best.

That’s some intense praise considering the talent White has brought into the program. He’s elevated the Ducks to one of the premiere teams in the country, and so far in 2017 it appears Oregon is well on its way to another Women’s College World Series berth – they’ve participated in 2012, ’14 and ’15.

At 9-0 and currently ranked No. 9, when the new rankings are released tomorrow the Ducks should jump a few more spots with a chance to crack the top five.

Regardless, Oregon has done everything its needed to thus far.

In nine games, its outscored opponents 58-17 with three shutouts and six games with two or fewer runs allowed.

Likewise, the Ducks have scored eight or more runs in four games.

The pitching is in midseason form two weeks in. And the bats, they’re not too shabby either.

Sure, only two of Oregon’s early opponents were ranked when the Ducks played them. The schedule isn’t anything to write home about.

But Oregon is doing what it needs to do: take care of each opponent regardless if they’re a perennial power or bottom feeder.

The Ducks have unfinished business from an underwhelming 2016 campaign, which ended in the super regionals with an upset loss to Pac-12 Conference rival UCLA.

A year older, an ace rotation returned and plenty of speed and quick sticks at the plate, it appears Oregon has the pieces to make a deeper run.

The question now is: can Oregon make reach its fourth WCWS in six years, third in four years?

Answer: probably, but’s a little too early to tell.

All the pieces required to accomplish such an impressive feat are there, and coaches across the country have taken notice, as the rankings reflect.

Now it’s about playing ball and living up to potential.

Stay tuned…

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